Dubai Ultra-Prime Home Sales Break Records as Supply Falls Short of Demand

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Demand for Dubai luxury homes outstrips supply as ultra-prime sales break records.

Dubai recorded up to 500 ultra-prime home sales above $10m in 2024, generating $9.05bn in total value - a 15% rise in volume and 28% increase in value year-on-year.
Active listings above $10m fell by 40% during 2024, from 4,120 properties to just 2,490, creating a structural supply shortage even as transaction volumes hit new highs.
Palm Jumeirah led all areas with 127 transactions above $10m in 2024 - 29% of all ultra-prime deals by volume and around $2.3bn in value.
Dubai now accounts for nearly one-third of all global super-prime transactions, outpacing London and New York on both volume and deal velocity.
Villa prices in Dubai have risen almost 100% since Q1 2020, with overall house prices now 13.1% above their previous 2014 peak.
Off-plan deals represented 52% of all ultra-prime transactions in 2024, with Omniyat, Nakheel and Emaar collectively capturing 46% of that segment.

Note: Full-year 2025 market data is not yet available; figures from 2024 represent the most recent comprehensive dataset.

Dubai Land Department Data Points to a Market in Structural Transition

Dubai's residential property sector has entered 2026 on record footing. Dubai Land Department (DLD) transaction data shows the market generated approximately AED 55bn ($15.02bn) in residential sales in January 2026 alone - a 43.9% surge in transactions compared with the same month a year earlier. This momentum is driven by sustained inflows of ultra-high-net-worth (UHNW) buyers, including internationally mobile families and wealth-migration investors, whose demand is now outpacing available supply at the top end of the market.

Research from Knight Frank's Middle East and North Africa (MENA) team shows Dubai recorded up to 500 transactions above $10m in 2024. The aggregate value reached $9.05bn - a 15% rise in volume and 28% increase in value year-on-year. Policy tailwinds are also shaping the longer-term outlook. The UAE Golden Visa scheme for qualifying property investors encourages wealthy buyers to establish long-term residency, while the Dubai 2040 Urban Master Plan provides a credible development framework. Together, these factors are helping convert investment buyers into permanent residents and sustaining demand well beyond short-term market cycles.

Record Transactions, Shrinking Inventory

Knight Frank's headline figure for Dubai's ultra-prime segment in 2024 - defined as homes priced above $10 million - is 435 completed transactions, marginally exceeding the previous all-time record of 434 set in 2023. A separate Knight Frank-based analysis published in early 2026 places the full-year figure closer to 500 deals, generating $9.05bn in value - roughly 28% higher than 2023. Both datasets point to the same conclusion: Dubai has set consecutive annual records for high-value home sales, and early 2026 data suggests the trajectory is continuing.

What is gaining most attention among advisors is not transaction volumes but the rapidly thinning pool of available stock. Active listings above $10m fell by approximately 40% during 2024, dropping from 4,120 properties to just 2,490 - even as completions hit new highs. By Q4 2024, inventory had partially recovered to 805 listed homes, but this remained 14% below the level seen a year earlier. Villas now represent around 68.5% of all ultra-prime deals, up sharply from 52% in both 2022 and 2023, reflecting the strong preference UHNW buyers place on larger, family-oriented homes in established communities.

Palm Jumeirah Leads, but the Ultra-Prime Map is Expanding

Palm Jumeirah remains the dominant community for ultra-prime activity. Knight Frank data shows the island recorded 127 transactions above $10m in 2024 - 29% of all such deals by volume and approximately $2.3bn in value, equivalent to around one-third of Dubai's total ultra-prime market. Average prices in the emirate's most affluent neighbourhoods reached roughly AED 6,626 per square foot in Q4 2024, with Palm Jumeirah registering approximately AED 7,305 per square foot - a 15% year-on-year increase - confirming persistent price appreciation in fully-priced trophy locations.

Beyond Palm Jumeirah, Emirates Hills ranked second by ultra-prime transaction value in 2024 with approximately $514.5m in closed deals. District One and Dubai Hills Estate each contributed between 6.2% and 6.6% of the overall ultra-prime market. Palm Jebel Ali is emerging as a significant new destination, recording 36 deals above $10m in 2024 and finishing the year as the second-most-active area by transaction volume in this bracket. Once completed, Palm Jebel Ali is expected to be approximately twice the size of Palm Jumeirah, with over 90 kilometres of beachfront. Analysts position it as a key release valve for ultra-prime demand that established communities can no longer fully absorb - though handover timelines running into the late 2020s mean activity today remains largely off-plan.

Off-Plan and Branded Residences Reshape Buyer Behaviour

With ready inventory constrained, buyers are increasingly committing to off-plan and branded developments. Knight Frank's breakdown of 2024 transactions shows that 52% of all deals above $10m were in the primary, off-plan market. Omniyat, Nakheel and Emaar collectively captured 46% of those sales, with Omniyat alone accounting for around 19%. Emaar's "The Oasis - Lavita" launch saw 29 of its 43 villas sell above $10m within months of coming to market, illustrating the pace at which well-positioned premium projects are absorbed.

The branded residences segment is amplifying this trend. Zawya data cited in regional media indicates that off-plan transactions represented approximately 82% of all branded-residence deals in 2025 - a clear signal that UHNW buyers are comfortable committing to multi-year pipelines when brand, location and specification align with their wealth-preservation objectives. At the very top of the market, individual trophy sales are also resetting price benchmarks. The sale of a penthouse at Bugatti Residences by Binghatti in Business Bay at AED 550m ($149.7m) was reported as the most expensive apartment transaction ever recorded in the UAE.

What This Means for Advisors and Their Clients

Knight Frank characterises Dubai's transition from an "emerging" to an "emerged" market as driven by long-term homeowners rather than speculative flippers. The emirate's population grew by approximately 170,000 people in 2024 - around 4.6% - pushing the resident base above 3.8 million. Wealth-migration data from Henley and Partners and New World Wealth suggests the UAE attracted around 9,800 relocating millionaires in the same year. House prices rose 19.1% over 2024 and now stand 13.1% above their previous 2014 peak, while villa prices have almost doubled - up nearly 100% - since Q1 2020.

Supply Constraints

Inventory shortfalls in Palm Jumeirah and Jumeirah Bay Island are expected to keep channelling demand into off-plan re-sales, often at significant premiums to original launch prices. Advisors should factor scarcity premiums into client expectations and ensure valuations are grounded in recent comparable evidence rather than headline launch prices.

Suitability Frameworks

Clients considering off-plan purchases or re-sales in the ultra-prime segment require suitability assessments that cover build-quality risk, developer financial strength, delivery timelines and the potential for future supply from areas such as Palm Jebel Ali to affect exit values.

Trophy Asset Distinction

As price-per-square-foot benchmarks continue to reset with landmark sales, advisors should help clients distinguish between genuinely scarce, globally competitive trophy stock and more commoditised "luxury" product in crowded sub-segments. This distinction is likely to become more consequential as the market matures and new supply comes to market across multiple master communities.

What Clients are Asking their Advisors

What is the minimum price for a property to be classed as ultra-prime in Dubai?

Ultra-prime residential property in Dubai is typically defined as homes priced above $10 million (approximately AED 36.7 million). Dubai now leads the world by volume for transactions in this bracket, ahead of London and New York, and recorded up to 500 such deals in 2024.

Can buying a luxury property in Dubai qualify me for a UAE Golden Visa?

Yes. The UAE Golden Visa scheme allows property investors who purchase qualifying real estate above AED 2 million to apply for a 10-year residency visa. Buyers of ultra-prime stock are well above this threshold and often qualify automatically, making residency planning a key consideration when purchasing at this level of the market.

How does Dubai's super-prime property market compare with London and New York?

Knight Frank data shows Dubai now accounts for nearly one-third of all global super-prime transactions - deals worth $10 million or more. The emirate recorded a 36% year-on-year jump in such deals in its latest reporting period, a pace that more established markets such as London and New York have not matched.

What are the main risks of buying off-plan luxury property in Dubai?

Key risks include delivery timeline uncertainty, developer financial strength, and the potential for future supply from emerging areas such as Palm Jebel Ali to affect exit values. Off-plan re-sales in established communities such as Palm Jumeirah frequently trade at significant premiums to original launch prices, which can compress future returns if market conditions shift.